a more clever than me being told me, that my calculation has a flaw.
let's call it "the second stone disaster".
this occurs more often, than i could think of. it's the "good luck"-equalizer.
easy description: let's think, you already opened one figure, for example the lipstick, the first time.
now later in the game you uncover the other lipstick card. but not with the first card but with the second.
so you already needed two moves to uncover the two lipsticks of the pair and now you'll need a third move, to bring them together.
to make it easy: with the maximum of this and "no luck" event and perfect memory with no faults, you'll need 30 moves - worst case bad luck scenario.
i think, it's good, that we opened a discussion about it.
even with pen and paper you'll have nearly no chance to solve it in 25 moves in a year as senator with 5 games per day.
already 27 could be called BIG LUCK, because you need as many "good luck" matches as "second stone disaster" and these are much more probable.
(why? think of it: you uncovered 2 cards with the first move with no success. with the next move you get a third card (not matching with one from the first move), so you come to the 2nd card. now the chance to open a card from your first trial is double high than to uncover the same card as the first from your second move. and this probability rises for every move with no matching pairs. and it rises faster, than to uncover two matching cards in one move.)
we're unlucky. and we got betrayed for... a long long time. we're stupid bimbos. we needed too long to uncover this fraud.
the rules should be changed.
let's call it "the second stone disaster".
this occurs more often, than i could think of. it's the "good luck"-equalizer.
easy description: let's think, you already opened one figure, for example the lipstick, the first time.
now later in the game you uncover the other lipstick card. but not with the first card but with the second.
so you already needed two moves to uncover the two lipsticks of the pair and now you'll need a third move, to bring them together.
to make it easy: with the maximum of this and "no luck" event and perfect memory with no faults, you'll need 30 moves - worst case bad luck scenario.
i think, it's good, that we opened a discussion about it.
even with pen and paper you'll have nearly no chance to solve it in 25 moves in a year as senator with 5 games per day.
already 27 could be called BIG LUCK, because you need as many "good luck" matches as "second stone disaster" and these are much more probable.
(why? think of it: you uncovered 2 cards with the first move with no success. with the next move you get a third card (not matching with one from the first move), so you come to the 2nd card. now the chance to open a card from your first trial is double high than to uncover the same card as the first from your second move. and this probability rises for every move with no matching pairs. and it rises faster, than to uncover two matching cards in one move.)
we're unlucky. and we got betrayed for... a long long time. we're stupid bimbos. we needed too long to uncover this fraud.
the rules should be changed.
